Box Office Potential

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At any given time in modern day cinemas, there’s a superhero movie playing and several superhero films in development, a trend that will continue, as long as superhero movies continue to be extremely profitable. Of the ten highest-grossing films of 2018, the three at the top were all superhero films (Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity Wars, Incredibles 2, respectively) as were six out of the top ten (up from five out of the top ten in 2017.) The more that superhero films prove to be generally successful the more that studios search through the comic catalogues for lesser known heroes for fresh material to keep people coming back for more. This may also partially explain the lukewarm reception for films based on older characters (Justice League) vs reception for fresher characters (Deadpool, Aquaman, Ant-Man and The Wasp, Wonder Woman, Guardians of the Galaxy 2). People are not only craving superhero movies, but are specifically craving novel hero concepts.

To better understand where the genre is headed, it is first crucial to comprehend why it is that people prefer superhero movies above all other films in the first place. According to an article in the NY Times, superheroes represent the greatest of human potential, in terms of both abilities and values. Superman himself is based on the philosophy concept of the “ubermensch,” or the perfect human being, something which we all strive toward. In a way, audiences see in superheroes their own unmet potential, and leave the theater impressed or even inspired to be stronger or better. It is therefore crucial for the film to forge a strong connection at the outset of the movie between the audience and the hero.

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Concept Development

 

Many superhero films establish a connection between viewer and hero by way of “origin story” allowing the viewer to see the before and after of the hero transformation, as if to say “this could happen to anyone, even you.” Once the bond is established, the story can unfold in a variety of ways, often spawning sequels that no longer need to employ origin. Another way that superhero movies forge a connection with the audience is by using the real world as a setting, to further suspend disbelief. One advantage that Marvel Universe has above DC is the real world settings (vs. Gotham City and Metropolis) which gives the villainous threats and possibility of destruction more weight. The final significant factor in forging a connection is tone. Again, the recent slate of Marvel films manage a balance between comedy and drama (even tragedy), reflecting a real-world range of emotions, vs. the recent slate of DC films, which were criticized for their lack of humor. (though more recent offerings Wonder Woman and Aquaman have lightened up on the tone to popular and critical approval). Even the past DC iteration of Batman Begins, though dark in tone, felt unmistakably real in its depiction of real-world darkness and corruption. But despite the structural failings of the recent DC superhero films, even the worst performing films among them (Man of Steel) grossed $75 million over the production budget, which shows that superhero films have more leeway in terms of popular success despite critical failure.

For the sake of maximum profitability, it makes sense to understand what makes a super hero film a success among both critics and audience. The most profitable of all DC films was, very surprisingly, Wonder Woman, grossing nearly 300 million above the production budget, being praised by critics for its groundbreaking portrayal of a feminine superhero. Likewise, the most successful superhero film to date is Marvel’s Black Panther, hailed for its groundbreaking portrayal of black excellence. Clearly, in the search for fresh material, both DC and Marvel stumbled upon goldmines by portraying underrepresented markets, women and African Americans as superheroes. Coupled with depictions of even children as superheroes (Kick Ass 1 & 2, both profiting at least double their relatively low budgets), now more than ever, “this could happen to anyone, even you.” In the search for a fresher take, why should we limit ourselves to comic back-catalogues, when we can simply make new characters based on underrepresented segments of the population. One of the most underrepresented segments in not only superhero films but in film in general, are handi-capped people. How fitting would it be to give a handicapped person superpowers; those who feel the least able, or perfect, to transform into the “ubermensch,” the perfect being.

In keeping with reality, it would be more compelling to give him powers based on reality, ala Batman, in other words to say, you don’t have to be lucky to become a superhero, you just have to be smart and savvy, which makes him all the more accessible to the audience. Furthermore, the handicapped superhero would be black, both to capitalize on the waves of Black Panther, but also to double down on the character having the harshest of origins (being black and handicapped). Taking it a step further, the hero would live not in a some fictional city, but in Chicago, where there is a very real threat of violence on a daily basis. (giving a slight emotional edge over Black Panther, taking place in a fictional African city) Finally, our black handicapped hero, would be a child on the cusp of his teens, the crucial final years where a boy can retain hope despite mounting opposition, and precocious boy at that, giving him the ability to develop powers for himself through basic engineer skills. (the handicapped aspect can also partially explain how he manages to stay out of trouble, as an outcast even in the black community, which allowed his mind to grow into genius.) As a moral genius, he builds a super-powered wheelchair to “clean up the neighborhood,” from threats among his own kind but soon finds a greater threat in “the man,” those who did nothing for the hood, but now label him a threat for taking matters in his own hands.

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Hidden Market Potential

 

Much like the marketing strategy laid out for Inanimate (itself based on the churchgoer strategy for Passion of the Christ) Chair Boy can be heavily promoted, at a very low cost, to organizations entrusted with the care of handicapped children. Tickets can be sold in bulk at a discount to these organizations for weekday and daytime showtimes which are often lesser populated. This would be a huge supplement to the general audience which would be made up largely of non-handicapped teenage children, African-Americans and ideologically progressive moviegoers, based on all the markets represented in the nature of the character as well as the social significance of the story in the context of the genre.


Box Office Projections

Budget: $50-60 million/Gross: $150 million

The budget is derived based on the budget of the comparable Kick Ass 1 and Kick Ass 2, as well as Sky High (all light-hearted young adult superhero films), all of which had a budget of around 30M or 35M when you factor in inflation. Adding another 20-25 million toward the budget will ensure a superior quality production, as well as a greater marketing effort.

Additional cost savings can be derived by relying heavily on viral marketing campaigns, as done successfully with Chronicle, a darker take on the young adult hero genre. Despite its low marketing expenses, it grossed 126M. It was a very effective strategy since most of the target market, as would be the case for Chair Boy, spends more time online than with TV.

The gross is deduced by tracking box office trends for all light-hearted young adult super hero films mentioned above. Sky High, released in 2005, grossed 85M. Kick Ass 1, released in 2010, grossed 96M. Kick Ass 2, which was not liked by audiences or critics, earned 60M at the box office, which can represent the minimal expected return. Due to its originality, Chair Boy should continue the upward trend and surpass the returns of Chronicle (126M), especially when you consider the recent reception of social-conscious, African-American-starring movies, as well as a greater interest in novel heroes between now and early 2010. This is very conservative given the receptions of Get Out (250M) and Black Panther (1.3B).